The McCain campaign and re-branding the GOP

These days, following the conclusion of the Thompson campaign, I now work in political polling. I look at numbers all day. And one thing I can say is that while the GOP brand is in terrible shape, John McCain is in a good position. Voters like and respect him, and he’s a very strong candidate for us in a tough year.

But McCain is still the Republican nominee, and for him to win, he’s going to have to succeed in changing the way that Americans look at the Republican party. Right now, most Independent voters still view the GOP as the party that lost the 2006 elections, and associate Republicans with corruption, deficits, out-of-control earmarks, and a still-unpopular war.

On the war, McCain has been stellar. Without his vocal support, the surge may never have happened. And the courage he has shown by unequivocally tying his campaign to a turnaround in Iraq has been amazing to watch, as its such a rarity in modern presidential politics.

McCain has the narrative he needs on the war. He fought Bush and Rumsfeld on their pre-2007 strategy, succeeded in pushing the surge, and now we’ve seen success follow. Polls show that Americans are starting to come around, and it will be much harder for Barack Obama (who will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee) to argue that the war has been a failure this fall then it was in October of 2006.

On domestic issues, however, McCain has problems in that while he has been one of the ‘good guys’ on earmark reform and spending cuts, its hard to argue that he has put his party back on track. Corruption scandals are still dragging down the GOP, as members of Congress continue to be investigated and indicted. People still see the GOP as the party that came to Washington in 1994 saying they were going to enact reforms and then not following through.

McCain’s general election strategy must include a plan to succeed in re-branding the GOP as the party of reform, and by demonstrating his independence from the Bush administration on both domestic issues and the war.

The first way to accomplish this is with his vice presidential pick. Dozens of names of potential candidates have been floated in recent weeks. But very few of the contenders will assist McCain in remaking the GOP brand as a thoughtful, conservative, and reform-minded party.

Early thoughts that he might pick Mike Huckabee to solidify social conservatives seem to have fizzled. McCain’s strong numbers among conservatives seem to indicate that he doesn’t need to select a running mate to “solidify the base” as was initially believed. The general consensus among most conservatives seems to be that we are fortunate to have McCain as our nominee since 1) he’s continued to run as moderately conservative since winning the nomination and 2) he actually has a shot at winning. But while McCain doesn’t necessarily need to choose someone very conservative, he certainly shouldn’t choose anyone more politically liberal than himself.

Of some of the top contenders, Mitt Romney brings almost nothing to the ticket besides his business experience, and his constant switching of positions and scorched earth primary tactics has left many with a bad taste. Adding Condoleezza Rice would tie McCain very closely to the Bush administration. Charlie Crist is fairly liberal, and has only been Governor for a year.

Activists pushing young, reform-minded Governors such as Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin are on the right track. Both present challenges to the image of Republicans as corrupt Washington insiders. But neither has been in office very long, and both have much work left to do in rooting out corruption in their home states before seeking higher office.

Other suggestions have been truly awful. Its hard to imagine a choice worse than Christie Todd Whitman, who has made her name since stepping down as EPA Administrator in attacking other Republicans at every opportunity. Yet her name been floated. Tom Ridge has been less vocal in his opposition to most core Republican principles, yet his voting record in congress and performance as Governor was very far to the left of the vast majority of the GOP, including McCain.

Of course, its easy to point out flaws in those being mentioned. And there is no perfect candidate. The best candidates mentioned so far, in my opinion, are Frank Keating, Mike Pence, Marsha Blackburn, and John Kasich. But there are certainly others who would add strength to the ticket, possibly some whose names aren’t even being seriously discussed.

McCain has months to make his choice, and then introduce (or reintroduce) that individual to the public.

And then the Democratic convention will come, and the dynamics of the race will change. The fractured party will reunite, voters will remember that despite their respect for John McCain, they would, following eight years of Republican rule, prefer a Democrat to succeed Bush.

This will be difficult to overcome. Fortunately, the Republican convention is later than the Democrats - not until September, only nine weeks before the election. There, McCain will formally accept the Republican nomination, and will have his greatest opportunity to show voters that the Republican party of 2008 is not the party they’ve grown to dislike over the last several years.

Some will likely argue that this should be accomplished by emphasizing the party’s “moderate” members. This was the case made by many about the 2004 convention, in which there wasn’t a conservative to be found among the convention’s major speakers, and the narrative that the speakers “didn’t accurately represent the party” dominated cable news each night of the convention.

But looking more closely, there was a broader message underpinning the entire 2004 convention. And it was simple: you can disagree with the Republicans on every other issue, but we’re right on foreign policy, the Democrats are wrong, and thus you need to vote to reelect the President.

2008 will be different in that with the exception of McCain himself, few Republicans have any credibility on the war. Convention organizers should let McCain make the case for success in Iraq in his acceptance speech, and let the rest of the convention emphasize a different message: that Republicans have regained their old mantle as the party of reform.

There will be pressure, certainly, to give prime time speeches to McCain’s vanquished rivals for the GOP nomination. But neither Mitt Romney nor Mike Huckabee have a vested interest in McCain winning the presidency, as both are already angling for a run in 2012. Ron Paul should be kept as far away from the convention as possible. Fred Thompson should have a role at the convention, but not as a major speaker.

Instead, the major speeches should be delivered by the major agents of reform within the GOP: Bobby Jindal, Jeff Flake, Sarah Palin, Mike Pence. Governors and congressmen not tied to Republican scandals. Reformers who have credibility that the Republican party needs. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Tim Pawlenty should also be given primetime speeches, as the convention will be in Pawlenty’s home state, and McCain has signaled he will make a major push for California.

With this lineup, by the time McCain takes the stage the final night, voters will have heard Republican voices speak with real gravitas about change and reform. He will have shown that John McCain’s Republican party in 2008 is a “big tent” for moderates and conservatives alike, but what unites us is that we are now back on track in our pursuit of cleaner, smaller, and more efficient government.

I believe if McCain can use his VP selection and the convention to drive that message home, he will be the next President of the United States, and could even help Republicans win a number of very tough races downticket throughout the country.